prophecies of a political junkie

a hapazardly put together possible scenario.. in a leaked report, another similar report rated the probablity of this happening at 5%.

Maoist quit government, do not compromise republic or fully PR system
Obstruct polls-related activities
Continues with low intensity protests etc.
Talks with other groups demanding full PR to form a coalition
Small groups eagerly join, in so far as they are not part of the Maoists but an alliance
If Maoist strategist are looking for a long term advantage, they try to hold sincere talks with Goit, Jwala Singh and other breakaway factions, assuring them that their petty conflict of the past is not more significant than a new Nepal with federal structure etc.
Assures Goit, Jwala Singh they will have a strong place, either as a different party or within the Maoists
Goit, eager to cement his legacy, accept, and perhaps so does Jwala Singh
A loose coalition is formed against the government and regular bandhs and strikes cripple life nationwide, but particularly in the Terai

Meanwhile, in KTM, NC is emboldened by its unity and sense itself as the strongest/largest party in Nepal (misleadingly). UML too is confident, and keeps blaming both NC and Maoists for trying to derail the peace process by not being compromising as they had been, though they have also always been in favor of the fully PR system
Time comes to reshuffle cabinet
NC tries to monopolize
Much conflict among the ruling parties
Smaller leftist parties possibly walk out
If no agreement, and judging the impact the Maoist and the loose leftist alliance is having, UML contemplates leaving the government, increases talks with Maoist in forming an alliance to launch a Janaandolan III

NC, not to be outdone, antes rhetoric of democratic forces and communist forces, starts talks with RPP, RJP, royalists, and the army and other status quoits
Seeing that being in the government will be counterproductive, UML quits and form alliance with the Maoist for a fully PR system and republic
Announce massive protests

All the while, nationalism is on the rise with growing ethnic tension, perception of foreign interference, “integrity of the nation”, and just general frustration due to rising prices, fuel and energy (electricity) crisis, incessant strikes and bandhs, and deteriorating law and order situation

NC forms the “democratic” alliance
Consults Indian and American diplomats
Both foreign powers do not want a leftist coalition or increased Maoist power
India does not want unstable leftist Nepal and more crucially, does not want long UN presence
Both powers accept GPK’s intention to repress the Janaandolan III

Repression starts
Curfews clamped/defied
Vigilantes infiltrate, cause disturbances
Kantipur sides with NC saying the protests are violent (like in the Madhesh movement when it gave the wrong impression to many KTM based people)
Maoist combatants desert camps, albeit without weapons saying they will protest peacefully through the streets
Declaring that the peace process has failed, GPK, with support from the army, other right wing parties, and India and the US, declares state of emergency
Mobilizes army
Repression succeeds
India provides military support
Nepal becomes like Bhutan.

Also interesting, what Rabindra Mishra has to say.