CA Election Results -- First Cut

I am surprised by UML's dismal performance in Kathmandu! Pradip Nepal lost, and other major leaders, including Madhab Kumar Nepal, Raghu Pant, Vidya Bhandari, and Ishwor Pokharel are all trailing, not leading. Outside Kathmandu, Bamdev Gautam seems to be falling behind, too. In places where the Maoists are leading, the remaining votes seem to be split between NC and UML and where NC is leading Maoists and UML seem to be sharing the remaining votes almost 50-50.

For FPTP votes, it seems like NC and the Maoists will share the majority of the votes, with UML coming second in the majority of places. Assuming people are voting for the same party in both FPTP and proportional boxes, the UML may have a significant number of proportional seats. The result will be that the 601-seat CA will be split three ways, perhaps close-to equally, between NC, UML and Maoists.

I am not positive about the remaining parties getting noticeable seats, at least not big enough to tilt things one way or the other. That may be a good thing. The Madhesi parties have more divisive policies than, say, the NC. They should be happy if they get 20 out of the 601 seats.

I am upset about the Maoists' stellar performance even in city areas, mainly Kathmandu, but a "hung" interim parliament may be the best for the country. The country may become a republic, while the power-sharing needed between NC and the Maoists in the interim government (UML and Maoists would make poor coalition partners, while a NC-UML coalition would not be able to achieve much with Maoists as the opposition party) may prevent the division of country along strictly ethnic lines.

If the Maoists get a majority (which is possible going by the results so far), I am worried they may push too far to integrate the PLA into the Nepal Army, which I see as the biggest challenge to Nepal post-election results. That may trigger a much vigorous resistance from the army (as opposed to what would be the case with the moderate NC finding a compromise between what the Maoists want and what the army wants).

I hope a few staunch supporters of Gyanendra win, including Kamal Thapa (although it seems very unlikely). We need these people debating in the parliament, not outside hatching plans to derail the constitution-writing process.

The who-is-who of yesterday, including Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Sushil Koirala, may not even be in the parliament. Kudos to the Nepali people for the nice clean up of the old faces. And, lo and behold, Sujata Koirala may be buying a one-way ticket to Germany!

Whatever the final result may be, this thing is exciting, exciting enough to lose a few days of sleep and postpone a few papers.