Madhesh after the CA

Children take in a dip in the pond as the heat breaks the forty barrier. The air is still. For now, the Madhesh is calm, but one can feel the unease beneath the surface. The armed groups are said to be regrouping, after several defections during elections. It is rumored the two arch-rivals Jwala Singh and Goit are holding discussions in India for an alliance, even a possible merger. It has been reported that a press release is in the offing soon. We will see how they articulate their strategy, what demands they bring forth etc. Overall, this new strategy could actually be an exit strategy for a face-saving safe landing. There is already an alliance between four other armed groups, who are working more closely than ever before, making it increasingly difficult for the police to track them. The Armed Police Force has managed to limit the activities of the armed groups, but they may be leaving soon since they were initially deployed for the elections. Meanwhile, the armed groups have already begun small scale activities such as extortion and minor explosions. If two bombs planted in Janakpur is any indication, the IEDs will start becoming more powerful.

The Madhesi parties are themselves confused. While MJF have emerged as the clear favorites in the Terai, the Maoists are not far behind either. Ethnicity might have trumped class for now, but the Maoists maintain a strong hold among the poor and marginalized. They have done well in many rural constituencies. It remains to be seen how MJF and Maoists coordinate on local issues, particularly since MJF seems bent on using the Madhesi agenda as a bargaining tool just as the Maoists used republicanism while in the government. Local political activists remain confident that if a Madhesh movement was launched again, the Maoists from the Madhesh would side up with them. And if there is a new Madhesh agitation, the frustration at places were polling was unfair and people are angry could add fuel to the fire.

The biggest loser probably were the traditional Madhesi elites, best represented by TMDP. They lost Mahanta Thakur and other influential leaders. TMDP’s fondness for intellectual debate and moderation has so far prevented it from any rash action, but they will be under immense pressure from their cadres to form a structure similar to the YCL. Some moderate leaders are finding it increasingly difficult to contain their youths, and have so far deferred the decision until the central committee meeting.

The path ahead for Madhesh is anything but smooth. For now, all the parties are in a wait-and-see mode until further developments at the center. Let us hope for the best.