Post election Madhesh

Tired of our media flooded by “how-the-analysts-got-it-all-wrong” vis a vis the elections? Let’s move on – what now in the Madhesh?

Like in the rest of Nepal, the Madhesh too preferred the new party MJF instead of parties consisting entirely of tried and tested politicians (read TMDP and SP – Mahato). However, unlike the Maoists, MJF has some old (and corrupt) faces, most notably in Renu Yadav, Bijay Gacchadar, and Sarat Singh Bhandari. They also have dubious connections with various groups including royalists and Hindu fundamentalists. It will be interesting to see how the power dynamics will play out – will the more radical and ex-Maoist Upendra Yadav forge a working alliance forgetting the bitter rivalry of the past, or will the more traditional elite of the party (Renu, Vijay, Sarat) dominate? Whatever the case, Madhesi issues will indeed gain in prominence. Already, Madheshis make up 31% of those elected in FTTP and a 32% will be selected in the PR. This is historic for Madhesh.

However, many are also disappointed due to the loss of Mahanta Thakur, who lost by less than 300 votes. NC’s Amaresh Singh could not pull it off despite his tremendous influence and support from the security forces and criminal elements, while still having a strong organizational base. MJF’s victory is a surprise, but a pleasant one – the constituency clearly preferred the Madhesi parties over NC by a wide margin. Another loss is Chitralekha Yadav, deputy speaker of the Interim Parliament. But then maybe trading her for Karina Begum (Parsa – 1), a young Muslim woman, isn’t all that bad.

The interesting thing to watch will be the armed groups’ reaction. The armed groups showed restraint during the elections – be it because they did not have the will and capacity, or their association with some candidates, or India’s arm twisting to lay low till the elections. Post election is different. Explosions, abductions, and killings have already started.

The best we can do is hope that a large Madhesi representation in the parliament will actually force the new government to be sincere about holding talks with the armed groups. But again, it remains to be seen if the Maoists and the armed groups are willing to forget their egos and past bitterness to move ahead and truly work for the betterment of the Madhesh.