Rumors have resurfaced of an eminent coup in Nepal. The rumors speculate that the coup would either be army led or by a certain faction within NC (and possibly UML) with a soft spot for the king. Manjushree Thapa also sees that as one possibility.
Dristi reports that a ‘contingency plan’ that the army had drew up that would take effect if the Maoists forcibly took power has been reactivated. Dristi says that a circular to that effect has been sent to all the big shots in the army. The contingency plan was formulated about a year ago and includes raiding of all the 28 Maoist cantonments as well as intelligence gathering on the leaders and cadres, so they can be apprehended with ease were the plan to take into effect.
Politicians whose career have been doomed by the elections, I can see why they would be desperate. But are our military men that deluded that they think they can seriously pull this off? We will once again have to scrutinize everything Katuwal says looking for hints. He would have the ideological underpinnings. He has asked all military structures to have a picture of Pritivi Narayan Shah. He was angry at Girija for not giving the army the traditional role it enjoyed during elections. And I am sure he is a die hard royalist. But can he be so out of touch with the Nepali reality?
And thus, I think if there is talk to a coup, the timing is probably the biggest factor. Maybe it is just the intelligence gathering phase that has started. Wait for the army integration issue to resurface again. That could be the sticking point. Two indications allude that the process might already have started – Indian media’s reports that India would assist in reintegrating Maoist combatants by providing them vocational skills training and our erstwhile Peace and Reconstruction Minister Poudel saying that the Maoist should resolve the reintegration before forming the government (meaning dismantle the PLA).
Well, if not substantive rumors, certainly an interesting gossip for us at Naya Nepal.
11 comments:
malai ta lagdaina coup huncha.
kasari huncha ra. rajako supporterle 2% vote pani napako belama . aba US le ta maoists lai baidhanikta dine vaisakyo.
satdo bato jaile yastai halla lyaucha. chunaab ni hudai hudaina vanya haina? hehe
hami ta sojho jana sadharan.
aashai aash matra dekhchau.
tara malai maoists ko ni dar lagcha.
as bidrohi ramro tara as rulers chai khai? jhan all powerful vayo vane ta ??
presidency ko barema k cha bchaar? ceremonial ki powerful?
malai ta india ko jastai thik lagcha. ceremonial.ani check and balance huncha ni haina ki kaso?
e.. tyo mathiko comment ma satdo bato haina hai sachet pashu ho
sachet pashu jaile yastai halla lyaucha.
maile possibility matra bhaneko.. most probably they cannot pull it off now.
the thing is what if the king, the army, the koirala clan, and India (Congress and RAW) all decide, over one year that they would rather favor stability than democracy. the army and the maoists can go on bickering about the reintegration issue, and finally, when they think the time is ready, snap the peace process.
india's antagonistic relationship with india (as a result of courting china during the royal takeover)can also fade - because now gyanendra will have to practically have to be india's puppet.
chunab bhayeko main reason the parties - and india - were confident that NC will win. terai ma because of party splits, NC would remain the largest party. aru thau ma ppl would not vote for maoists.
mistake:
india's antagonistic relationship with india (as a result of courting china during the royal takeover)can also fade
read: gyanendra's antagonistic relationship....
malai ta dovanko kura chitta bujhyo.
ekdam, sent par cent.
i think some kind of showdown between republicans and royalists is inevitable and imminent. In a few months...can'twait.
I think some kind of showdown between republicans and royalists is coming soon, since Gyane doesn't want to go gracefully.
Gyane was even planning to move dozer over the protesters in the last revolution.
(maile ekdam bshesh source bata suneko)
but the army officials refused re.
army ko kasle? it depends on who. sachit shamsher wanted to do something similar in 2046 saal ko aandolan. but birendra refused.
there is definately a pro-monarchy and another more liberal group in the army. not sure rukmangat is in which faction, but if i had to bet, it'd be in the royalist faction.
baru rana/shah haru ma koi cha ki... because some of them may think of themselves as equally important ppl as gyanendra.
tara, on a forward-looking basis, anything rash and stupid like that will be disastrous for the army ni.
i don't think the army will use any "hard power" to aid the survival of the monarchy (which is not possible - the survival - no matter what they do).
aba, huna sakchha, army bhitrako euta unitle mischief garna khojla. tara i cannot imagine any such group would be of significant size.
survival is important. yes. but survival is important for the the institution of "army" as well, ni.
haina ta?
like dovan said, 2% ta vote najitekaa ko pacchi lagchha ta army? highly doubtful.
aba "soft power" ko baaremaa chahin, i cannot say. i still don't see why the army, as an institution, would want to be in the wrong side of history, though.
nepal ko sena jaile jitneko pachi matra lagyo. kaile bidrohi vayena.
kot parva ma
ani durbar hatya kanda ma pani
sena le kailai bidroha garena.
tyasaile yaspali pani gyaneko lagi sena le risk uthaune very little chance.
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