The fear of the Maoists is largely unfounded.
I am myself not happy with the results, but I am also positive that nothing extreme will happen even if the Maoists get the majority.
Also note that the results so far are only for the FPTP system. There are votes to be counted for the proportional system as well. Putting the two together, it is unlikely that the Maoists will be able to get things completely their way without support from other parties (except for the republic issue, which requires only a simple majority). Except in a few places, Nepali Congress (NC) and UML have votes close to that of the Maoists. As I said earlier, if this trend is similar in the proportional ballot as well, NC and UML will still land up with a decent number of seats (in fact, the gap between the Maoists and NC-UML may be less in the proportional side than in FPTP seats).
At this point, the Maoists are craving for international legitimacy. Domestic legitimacy alone is not going to be sufficient to move things around, especially on larger issues of foreign policy and People's Liberation Army (PLA) integration. To get that legitimacy, the Maoists will have to win the hearts of other party representatives, mainly the NC. The Maoists will have to work with them. Despite the fact that many of Maoist representatives may be uneducated, I don’t think the Maoist leadership is dumb enough to try to ‘bowl alone’.
Some fears, such as the fact that the Maoists may change the curriculum—their idea of the curriculum was published by the media last year(?)—may be reasonable, especially if the Maoists get the education ministry after the current coalition government changes. But I think there will be enough representation from other parties in the Constituent Assembly—which will also act as the parliament during the interim period—to raise such issues.
All in all, I am quite optimistic about the possible ‘consequences’ of the Maoists winning the majority of seats in the parliament. And all the lousy politicians from UML and NC, including every crony of GPK, are either gone or will likely go. I just hope none of these people get nominated by the prime minister under the quota allotted to him.
4 comments:
an article in the economist a few weeks back talked about two schools of thought on evolution. one is inhabited by the "creeps" and the other by "jerks". creeps believe evolutionary changes come in small increments (at least most of the time if not always), while the jerks believe in big, significant changes.
[so, by the creeps' estimation evolution takes a lot of time, the jerks believe in "fast-forward" evolution.]
anyway, before i stray away too much the matter at hand. the aftermath (results) of the election does not represent a creep. it is a jerk. do/should we have to fear the jerk, that remains to be seen.
and no, i don't think the distribution of the PR seats will dampen the new super-majority. word from the street was, cpnm lay claim to 70% of the total votes cast (as of the am on 4/12).
it makes sense evolution wise too? nice post.
went back to check on the article. turns out jerks believe in jerks followed by periods of "nothing".
anyway, that's beside the point. the only point i wanted to make was, the results represent a completely different reality than what was true before the election. and cpnm win is Massive. talk about PR dilution, and lack of international legitimacy and such is quite beside the point.
the people, it seems, have spoken. very, very clearly.
I am, too, surprised by how much misinformation we were fed, by the media and by the parties. Funny thing, just a few weeks ago some NGO came up with their survey results saying 49% of the Nepali people believed in the monarchy system. Wonder what they have to say now! Seems like the reality even before the election was in favor of the Maoists -- just that everyone got the wrong understanding (some, of course, may have simply provided the wrong info to the rest).
--M.P.
Post a Comment